“Don’t drag us in”

On June 29, the authoritarian leader of Belarus, Alexander Lukashenko, met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. The visit to China was not announced. Lukashenko flew to Beijing immediately after meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

It is still not known what Lukashenko and Putin talked about for two days at Valdai. Perhaps one of the topics could have been Minsk’s (non)participation in Russia’s war against Ukraine. Before meeting with Putin, Lukashenko publicly asked not to drag Belarus into the war.

Also, as some media outlets predicted, Lukashenko could have handed Putin a letter from Kyiv. On June 29, Insider UA, citing sources in the Ukrainian presidential office, reported that Volodymyr Zelenskyі could have offered Putin to start peace talks through Alexander Lukashenko. At the same time, the Kremlin stated that Putin did not receive any message.

Why did Lukashenko fly to Xi? Perhaps to gain support: Beijing regularly calls on Moscow and Kyiv to return to the negotiating table. The latest such call came from the lips of Chinese Permanent Representative to the UN Sun Lei just at a Security Council meeting.

The Kremlin is increasing pressure on Belarus to use its territory as a springboard in the war with Ukraine and for subversive activities against NATO. The Wall Street Journal writes about this, citing Russian and European officials. In 2022, Russia already used Belarus to attack Ukraine, and then deployed its nuclear munitions there. Now Moscow wants to launch strike drones from Belarusian territory into Ukraine to distract the Ukrainian Armed Forces from priority areas.

China expert Alexei Chygadaev is sure that Alexander Lukashenko’s trip to China and his meeting with Xi Jinping were planned in advance. But it was important for Lukashenko not only to confirm economic agreements, but also to enlist the political support of the Chinese leader:

The political plane is important: China has stated that it supports the sovereignty of Belarus

– The political plane is important: China has stated that it supports the sovereignty of Belarus. At the same time, this is a signal from the Russian Federation: please do not touch Belarus and do not absorb it. This is a signal to Ukraine that China will consider an attack on Belarus as an attack on its partner. The economic part of the story is also important: we read in Chinese statements about the “One Belt, One Road” project. Belarus is an important logistics hub for Chinese goods, most of the goods that come to Europe through Poland go through Belarus. The crisis with Ukrainian President Zelenskyі and generally any instability on the border of Belarus and Europe affect Chinese supplies.

This is also a big message that China is trying to convey to Lukashenko. The question arises here, how Alexander Lukashenko will play these cards. He can really go to Vladimir Putin and say: look, we need to negotiate with me, because China is behind me. With these same cards, he can go to Poland and the European Union, and with these same cards, he can go to Vladimir Zelenskyі and say: we don’t need to attack me, so as not to quarrel with China. Alexander Lukashenko is a unique politician, whom everyone hates, but who manages to negotiate with everyone and stay in power for a long time, – says Alexei Chygadaev.

The Kremlin denies that it is dragging Belarus into a war with Ukraine. This was stated by Vladimir Putin’s press secretary Dmitry Peskov.

Political scientist Kateryna Glod reminds that Belarus has been indirectly helping Russia wage war against Ukraine for a long time:

The use of Belarusian territory as such a bridgehead really exists, and it is no secret

– Minsk is really involved in this war, it is helping Russia in many ways. First of all, this is connected with the defense industry, because Minsk receives defense orders from Moscow. This includes logistical assistance, the repair of Russian aircraft, the sewing of military uniforms, and also railway and air communications. That is, Minsk is not participating in this war directly. But the installation of these Russian radars, that is, the use of Belarusian territory as such a bridgehead, really exists, and it is no secret.

Xi Jinping’s statement of support for Belarus does not relieve Lukashenko of his obligation to be loyal to Vladimir Putin. In principle, we observe China’s statement of support for sovereignty and independence not only in relation to Belarus. Therefore, I would not put much emphasis on this, but this statement sounds quite symbolic now. More importantly, Lukashenko cannot help but depend on Putin. And I think that China understands this perfectly well and is pursuing a much smarter policy here, supporting Lukashenko in rhetoric. But if Russia and Putin want to put some more pressure on Lukashenko, then I do not think that China will act as a guarantor of Belarus’ independence or as a player on whom Lukashenko can rely, – political scientist Kateryna Glod is sure.

In March, the US lifted sanctions on Belinvestbank, the Development Bank of Belarus, the Belarusian Ministry of Finance, as well as Belaruskali and the Belarusian Potash Company – in exchange for the release of 250 political prisoners. The benefit of this agreement for the Lukashenko regime is obvious, believes Kateryna Glod:

People are being made to understand that Lukashenko retains his legitimacy, and that he is a player on the international arena

– This is a signal that Lukashenko is negotiating with the West, telling Putin two things: first, he says that this will help me cope with the imposed sanctions, and this will be beneficial for both of us. Using the example of Belarus, we will be able to see how the West lifts sanctions and how it works. On the other hand, I think Lukashenko explains that this is necessary for his support in Belarus, for the domestic audience, because we know that since 2020, even post-Soviet leaders have not perceived Lukashenko as president. And such contacts with the West, when major Western politicians like Trump or Macron call Lukashenko, are very popular in the country. People are made to understand that Lukashenko retains his legitimacy and that he is a player on the international stage. That is why he conveys these two messages to Putin. At the same time, I do not think that Putin is losing leverage over Lukashenko, because the political survival of his regime depends entirely on the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin wants full support from Alexander Lukashenko at the international level. He wants to see Belarus as a de facto appendage of Russia in everything related to defense and foreign policy, so that Belarus always supports Russia’s position on all issues. He wants Belarus to continue helping Russia circumvent sanctions related to the defense complex. Probably the most important thing for Russia and for Putin is that Belarus remains completely in the sphere of influence of Russia, although de jure Belarus remains an independent state. We see how Belarus is being used as a bridgehead and a fortified rear for Russia to send signals to Western countries, believes Kateryna Glod.

Source: https://www.svoboda.org/a/ne-vtyagivayte-nas/33792020.html