Asylum in Belarus can become a trap for Prigozhin and the “Wagnerians”

Analysts of the Institute for the Study of War believe that the Russian dictator Putin, with his statements about the mutiny, is trying to keep the “Wagnerians” in order to use them in the war in the future, and he will not forgive those who, instead of joining the Russian Ministry of Defense, go to Belarus to see Prigozhin, says the review of the “Institute for the Study of War” for June 26, writes “Ukrainian Pravda”.

“On June 26, Russian President Vladimir Putin gave a speech in which he tried to convince as many Wagner militants and leaders as possible to join the Russian army and continue fighting against Ukraine, as well as to force the people most loyal to the financier of the Wagner group, Yevhen Prigozhin, to self-identify ”, the review says.

Putin praised the work of the Wagner commanders, probably trying to retain them when the Wagner will be integrated into the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation.

Condemning the organizers of the armed uprising as traitors and thanking the self-proclaimed president of Belarus for his help in the negotiations, Putin did not mention Prigozhin by name. But analysts believe that Putin’s speech leaves little room for any rapprochement with the leader of the Wagner Private Military Company.

The Russian dictator once again called Ukraine the real enemy and offered the “Wagnerians” 3 options: continue to “serve Russia” by signing a contract with the Ministry of Defense or other Russian special services, resign and go home, or go to Belarus.

“Putin could have arrested Wagner’s commanders for treason, but instead offered to pardon and integrate Wagner’s forces – this shows his need for trained and effective personnel. Putin is also probably trying to complete the formalization process initiated by the Ministry of Defense of Russia,” experts note.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also assured his foreign colleagues on June 26 that “Wagner” will continue operations in Mali and the Central African Republic. Analysts also report that “Wagner” continues to recruit people in St. Petersburg, Yekaterinburg, Novosibirsk and Tyumen.

At the same time, the Institute for the Study of War believes that some of the units of “Wagner” may still follow Prigozhin to Belarus, where camps are already being built for their accommodation. Lukashenko may try to use Prigozhin’s fighters to balance Russia’s long-standing efforts to establish a permanent military presence in Belarus, although, ISW points out, it remains unclear how successfully Lukashenko will be able to attract the “Wagnerians” or deny Russia the extradition of Prigozhin’s fighters to Belarus.

Analysts write that Prigozhin’s personal whereabouts remain unknown as of June 26, although some unconfirmed reports indicate that he is staying at the Green City Hotel in western Minsk.

It is also indicated that Belarus will not offer the mercenaries a real asylum if the Kremlin puts pressure on it. So asylum in Belarus can become a trap.

“The Kremlin will most likely consider the members of Wagner who will follow Prigozhin to Belarus as traitors, regardless of whether he will take immediate measures against them or not. Putin has said that Wagner fighters are allowed to go to Belarus and that Putin will fulfill his unspecified “promise” to mercenaries who choose to do so. But the long-term value of this promise is questionable,” the report says.

“Wagner” fighters in Belarus are unlikely to remain safe from the Russian extradition order if Putin goes back on his word and accuses them of treason.” Moreover, Lukashenko previously handed over 33 “Wagnerians” detained in Belarus to Moscow.