The weakening of Putin’s leadership is causing concern among the Chinese authorities
The mutiny of the “Wagner group”, in which Yevgeny Prigozhin’s mercenaries approached several hundred kilometers from Moscow, revealed differences in the Russian armed forces that threaten the stability of China’s most powerful ally.
From the beginning of the war, Xi Jinping, the leader of China, consistently supported his “dear friend” Putin. And although the Chinese leader did not directly support the Russian army’s invasion of Ukraine, he refused to publicly condemn it and repeatedly supported Russian narratives that justified the war. In a February position paper, Xi criticized the “expansion of military blocs”, clearly pointing to the North Atlantic Alliance, which Putin accused of provoking a “special military operation” in Ukraine.
China’s support for Moscow is based on pragmatism and ideology. Pragmatism suffered the most damage as a result of the weekend’s dramatic events. Initially not commenting on the events, on Sunday the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs called the mutiny an “internal matter” of Russia and expressed support for Russia in ensuring national stability.
On Sunday, the state news agency Xinhua published an article suggesting that Prigozhin stepped down because the majority of Russian society was against him. And China Daily published a report from Red Square in Moscow, where it was noted that “everyday life in Moscow was not disrupted and remains calm and orderly.”
However, many in China do not trust this. Yu Jianrun, an influential liberal scholar, published a video of local Russian residents reacting angrily to a police advance in Rostov, a city taken over by the Wagnerites. “I really don’t know what’s going on here in this country,” Yu commented on his Weibo, where he has 7 million subscribers.
Shen Dingli, a Shanghai-based international relations scholar, said the “Wagner Group” incident would increase Russia’s dependence on China, while Beijing would take a “more cautious stance in relations with Russia.” Diplomatically, China should be more careful in its statements and actions, Shen said.
Others say Xi Jinping may be impressed by Putin’s handling of the rebellion.
At the same time, Oleksandr Korolev, a senior lecturer at the University of New South Wales in Sydney who specializes in China-Russia relations, said he does not think the Chinese government is jumping to conclusions about the presence of serious cracks in the Putin regime.
However, the Chinese leader is currently forced to balance between continuing to support Putin and securing himself in case his stay in the Kremlin is interrupted. One of the areas where this dilemma will be most acute is the sharing of intelligence. Prigozhin’s rapid advance towards Moscow suggests the unofficial support of certain figures in the Russian military and intelligence structures. This means that China’s connections with Russian intelligence services may be at risk.
As noted by Joseph Webster, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, if Chinese intelligence agencies share intelligence on Putin’s opponents with their Russian counterparts, there is a high risk of exposure and the possibility of long-term damage to bilateral relations if “anti-Putin” forces come to power in Russia.
The Chinese government is pleased that the agreement with Prigozhyn was reached quickly. Putin is an important partner of China, supporting its position on the international stage, especially calling on the countries of the Global South to resist “US-led hegemony”. At the public level, China’s support for Putin remains stable.
However, China is increasingly concerned about stability in Russia, says Oleksandr Gabuev, director of the Carnegie Russian-Asian Center.
New challenges facing Putin’s leadership have Xi Jinping worried. Analysts disagree on whether he could meddle in Russia’s domestic politics to keep the pro-Beijing leader in power, as doing so could risk straining relations with a potential successor.
The founder of the “Wagner Group” announced decisive actions against the Russian military leadership, including the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, Sergei Shoigu. He announced the beginning of a “justice campaign” in the growth and seizure of military facilities in the region.
Later it became clear that Putin does not control the situation related to the rebellion of Yevgeny Prigozhin: militants have established control over all military facilities in Voronezh.
Currently, numerous arrests of servicemen suspected of sympathizing with the rebels are taking place in Moscow and the regions, including the well-known former commander Colonel-General Surovikin, who is accused of aiding Prigozhin in the overthrow of the military and political leadership of the Russian Federation. It is possible that Surovikin had personal motives for removing the leadership of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Minister of Defense Russian Federation Shoigu, and Chief of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation, Gerasimov, in order to claim one of the leading positions in the hierarchy of the Russian army. It is possible that these moods were successfully warmed up by the environment, among which were informants of the military counter-intelligence of the Federal security service (FSB) of the Russian Federation, and everything else is a matter of technology and time.
Assuming that the forces connected with the special services of the Russian Federation may be behind Prigozhin’s rebellion, if not directly, then indirectly, the question arises – “why”? The answer is suggested – in order to show the inability of Putin himself and his military leadership to suppress and localize any unrest of the disaffected in the Russian Federation in front of Putin’s closest partners, and especially the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
In this sense, one remembers Patrushev’s visit to China in September of last year, as the most influential erefian politician after Putin, where scenarios were probably discussed to eliminate the remaining remnants of critical thinking, support and loyalty of Putin’s population. So it is not necessary for the “Chinese comrades” to rethink their behavior and preferences regarding the future “heir” of the “greater” everything should be as it should be. Power will remain in the “calloused hands” of security forces!