The strike on Kostyantynivka: why it could not have been the Ukrainian Buk air defense system
Regarding the NYT investigation that the attack on Kostyantynivka was carried out by the Ukrainian Buk air defense system. According to journalists, a rocket fell on the city and “went off course”.
I emphasize again: I studied this complex. I saw these rockets before my eyes. I claim that it is practically impossible for those “Buks” that are in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, journalist Denys Popovych writes on his Facebook page.
The 9M38 (M1) missile of the “Buk” (M1) air defense system works with a semi-active guidance system. The radar irradiates an air target, after which the SAM crew takes this target for tracking and makes a decision to launch the missile. After launch, the signal reflected from the air target falls directly on the receiver of the missile itself, which thus pursues the target and ensures its destruction by detonating the warhead, which is filled with striking elements.
At the same time, it is not so important what holes the “investigators” found at the scene of the accident and from which direction the rocket was approaching.
It could not be “Buk” for the following reasons:
1) The very principle of guidance does not allow the use of this complex under the ground-ground system. I do not claim that it is impossible in principle, but I have not heard that in Ukraine appropriate modernization of guidance systems was carried out with these SAMs.
2) The 9M38(M1) missile, having lost its target, does not “go off course” and does not fly anywhere. It self-destructs in the air. It just explodes forever somewhere above 10 km. This is her algorithm, which is sure to work.
3) Even if something unusual and incredible happened and the self-destruction algorithm did not work, then the possibility of a ground explosion also raises many questions. The warhead on this missile is activated thanks to a radio detonator, which is automatically activated when the missile approaches an air target at a distance of 25-50 meters. But if the missile “lost the target”, then it does not see it – that is, it is impossible to determine the distance – the radio detonator does not work – there is no explosion.
And finally, the question arises, where was the aerial target at which the hypothetical missile from the Buk was fired?? If there is no air target, there is no missile launch. As long as the operator did not take something to accompany it, the rocket simply will not leave the guides. Point.
I am not a military expert, but I can be considered a media expert, because I have been working in this field for 28 years. Therefore, I make an “expert” opinion regarding this NYT “investigation”. This is a low-quality attack, made with Russian funds, because they like to spread narratives that Ukrainian air defense is blowing up buildings on the ground. Although minimal knowledge of the materiel, how air defense systems work, raises a lot of questions about such “versions”.
Why did this investigation appear now? Well, Volodymyr Zelenskyi is in Washington. ATACMS is on the agenda. What is not clear.