A fatal outcome for Lukashenko
Reality and propaganda rarely intersect, and the story with the repeaters appears to be no exception.
The end of spring and beginning of summer were marked by a sharp deterioration in Ukrainian-Belarusian relations. The main stumbling block was the use of Belarusian telecommunications infrastructure to guide Russian drones to targets in Ukraine. Attempts to resolve the issue through backchannel diplomatic channels were unsuccessful, and the conflict spilled into the public arena.
After several rounds of exchanges on the issue, a Ukrainian ultimatum was issued, and everyone froze in anticipation of the inevitable outcome. Belarusian propaganda maintained its peaceful stance while simultaneously insulting the Ukrainian authorities.
However, as often happens, with the passage of time, many secrets gradually become clear. The first warning sign that Ukrainians would not tolerate Russian drone targeting systems on Belarusian territory was Zelenskyі‘s announcement that four repeater stations in Belarus had been inoperative since June 22.
Just four days later, an attack on Korosten, Ukraine, occurred, apparently using repeater stations from Belarusian territory. On June 29, the now former commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian army, Syrskyі, stated that one repeater station had been activated but would no longer be. He believed that the Belarusian side had understood why this should not be done.
In the age of global information technology, it is difficult to conceal the traces of such events, and this is what happened this time.
Journalists discovered a very characteristic tender for the restoration of an MTS mobile phone tower in the village of Tonezh near Lelchytsy. Previously, sources had stated that the tower had been hit, but that it had been successfully struck on the second attempt.
The first attempt by the drone missed and struck a forest, which started a fire. A check through the global fire and heat anomaly monitoring service confirmed a forest fire on June 28th, several kilometers from the village of Tonezh. Journalists also received reports of damage to towers in Loyev and the Pinsk district, but there isn’t as much information on them yet as on the Tonezh tower.
Thus, Lukashenko’s state propaganda attempted to put a good face on a bad situation and carried out a “fool yourself”-style operation against the Ukrainians. The bottom line is that the repeaters are not working, and there has been no escalation of military activity between the two countries, despite Ukrainian sanctions against the repeaters.
The issue has been resolved until the next round of tensions. And no one seems to doubt that there will be one. Many military experts speculate that Moscow may attempt to exploit the Belarusian factor to fundamentally alter the situation on the fronts of the Russian-Ukrainian war. In the event of a mass mobilization, at a minimum, Belarusian training grounds could be reactivated for Russian military training, and at a maximum, the country’s territory could be invaded at some point along the thousand-kilometer-long Belarusian-Ukrainian border, using the country’s infrastructure and logistics. Such actions by the Russians would be fatal for the Belarusian authorities, and they understand this.
Therefore, the Belarusian regime will try to avoid such a scenario at all costs.