How new drones led to the shelling of “Okhmatdyt”
Cities far from the front are shelled by the Russian Armed Forces with long-range cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as Shaheds. In Odesa, 64 people died and 223 were injured because of them in six months. The region has more casualties than some of the frontline areas due to two shellings in March. 12 people died when the entrance of a nine-story building collapsed due to the arrival of Shahed. 21 people died as a result of the impact on the “recreational facility”. Rescue workers and medics were also injured and killed in the second strike. In particular, two former high-ranking officials who served in the Armed Forces of Ukraine died in the unnamed hotel.
“After the first explosion, I immediately ran to my mother,” said a woman who lives next door to the hotel. “Her ceiling collapsed. I’m holding her, she’s shaking, crying, and then there’s a second explosion, and then a wave tore out our windows. Meanwhile, the wounded are screaming and moaning on the street.”
Ten people were killed and 168 were injured in Kyiv and Kyiv region during six months of shelling. Until recently, it seemed that air defense in Kyiv was “impenetrable”, says Kyrylo Mykhaylov, who lives in the Ukrainian capital. In the first half of the year, there were shellings in Kyiv with dozens of victims only in winter. The Soviet Union emphasized the destruction of the energy infrastructure throughout the country. Ukrainian energy experts say that Russia has changed its shelling tactics compared to 2022: instead of destroying networks, which are easier to repair, the USSR began to deliver more concentrated strikes on energy generation infrastructure: TPPs and HPPs. About half of the power generation capacity was lost by July. Only nuclear power plants, on which the Ukrainian energy industry now relies, were not bombed. There are not enough nuclear power plants and alternative energy, so the electricity is turned off in cities across the country.
The shelling of the energy sector was a new significant blow to the economy of Ukraine. Power shortages have reduced production in heavy industry, and shops and catering have been hit, with fridges not working in the heat, leaving some shops with empty shelves. After a series of shellings, electricity tariffs increased by 60%. The Ministry of Energy of Ukraine explained this, in particular, by the destruction of energy facilities. Because of this, the IMF worsened the forecast for the recovery of Ukraine’s GDP this year. The National Bank of Ukraine also recorded an additional outflow of the population abroad due to the blackout and its consequences.
On July 8, the Russian army launched the most devastating missile attack on Ukraine this year. In Kyiv, 33 people died and 120 were injured. One of the rockets hit the largest children’s hospital “Okhmatdyt”, also several shells immediately flew by the “Artem” military plant. Austrian military analyst Tom Cooper theorized that such a number of missiles had not been shot down by air defense because of previous Russian attacks, including on radar stations. As a result, a blind “corridor” was formed on the territory of Ukraine from the borders of the Russian Federation to the central part of Ukraine, through which missiles fly imperceptibly, and air defense over the cities does not have time to react in time.
Analyst Mykhaylov does not agree that the problem lies precisely in this “corridor”, but admits that a significant number of Ukrainian radars have been destroyed in recent months. As Mikhailov explains, this is due to another technological breakthrough of the Russian Federation: advanced reconnaissance drones can now fly further into the territory of Ukraine and detect radars and air defense systems, which are most often hit by Iskander ballistic missiles. They can only be shot down by Patriot, Mykhailov says. And most of the Ukrainian air defense is not designed to fight against small reconnaissance drones, so the Ukrainian military is starting to introduce a new way to fight them – ramming with small FPV drones that are controlled in real time through a camera.
In addition, the Soviet Union found a way to break through Ukrainian air defense with cunning maneuvers of cruise missiles, Mykhailov noted.
“This, of course, does not add confidence in the future. If the people of Kyiv felt relatively safe, now there is no such feeling,” Mykhaylov comments on the results of the shelling on July 8.
According to Mikhailov, Russia most likely has only an “intact” stockpile of long-range missiles in case of a war with NATO, but production is many times greater than before the war. This allows the USSR to conduct approximately 1-2 massive shelling per month, which are not as large-scale as in the winter of 2022-2023, but still cause significant damage. In addition, the production of cheaper air bombs for front-line aviation is also increasing, Mykhaylov notes.