Russia’s new air offensive. In what state did Ukraine find itself?

In these weeks, Russia launched its largest bombing campaign since the beginning of the war

A series of large-scale night attacks targeted the civilian energy infrastructure of Ukraine. This led to large-scale damage to the Ukrainian power grid and plunged millions of people into darkness. If Ukraine does not urgently receive additional air defense systems and ammunition from its Western partners, a large part of the country may soon be on the verge of a humanitarian disaster.

Russia’s new air offensive began in the second half of March. It combines ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and kamikaze drones. The targets of the attacks are a wide range of infrastructure facilities throughout the country. The complex nature of the strikes indicates a detailed knowledge of the energy system of Ukraine. In just over a week, this bombing campaign destroyed several power plants, damaged a gas storage facility, and disabled electricity transmission infrastructure across Ukraine.

Another indication of Russia’s intention to intensify its air war is the attack on a number of Ukrainian hydroelectric plants. This raises concerns about a potential environmental disaster if the dams located on some of Ukraine’s largest waterways burst.

While there are no official figures on the total damage caused to Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure by Russia’s new air offensive, the country’s largest private electricity supplier, DTEK, confirmed on March 30 that it had lost 80% of its generating capacity due to a recent wave of shelling.

Much of this damage was to facilities that had only recently been repaired following previous Russian attacks in 2022 and 2023. “Some units that were put into operation two months ago are missing,” commented DTEK Executive Director Dmytro Saharuk. “We restored roofs, installed transformers, repaired turbines and generators. Now everything is in ruins.”

Since March 22, cities across the country, including Kharkiv in the east and Odesa in the south, have experienced temporary power outages. Many residents continue to have sporadic access to electricity. Even in those regions where the population was not disconnected from the grid, the Russian attacks caused significant disruptions and forced industrial shutdowns.

With at least 2 GW of capacity damaged or destroyed across the country, Ukraine is now looking to maximize electricity imports from neighboring EU countries. Before the recent escalation of Russian bombings, Ukraine needed to use about 0.5 GW of cross-border capacity to import electricity from EU countries. This figure has now tripled to 1.5 GW, which is close to the maximum technical capacity of 1.7 GW provided by existing transmission lines.

The cost of repairing the damage caused by the latest wave of Russian attacks will be high. It is expected that this will significantly exceed previous estimates by the World Bank, which has already estimated the cost of restoring Ukraine’s wartime civil infrastructure at more than $135 billion. DTEK alone may have to find an additional $200 million to restore capacity. Understandably, some question whether it makes sense to invest such large sums in another round of repairs now, given the possibility of new Russian airstrikes.

Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion that began more than two years ago, Russia has been purposefully attacking Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure. In this way, the Kremlin hopes to undermine economic activity, break the Ukrainian population’s will to resist, and force millions of civilians to flee their homes.

These attempts have so far been unsuccessful. Ukraine’s resilience is largely due to the courage and ingenuity of the country’s engineers, who have repeatedly exposed themselves to the dangers of missile strikes and drone strikes to repair power plants, substations, generators and distribution lines.

However, one cannot expect that the titanic efforts of Ukrainian energy workers are endless. This is especially true in the current circumstances, when recently renovated infrastructure is once again being targeted and destroyed by Russian airstrikes.

The only long-term solution to the threat of Russian bombing is strengthened air defense. In recent days, Ukrainian officials, including President Zelenskyi, have actively called on the country’s partners to urgently supply new air defense systems and new interceptor missiles.

The current stalemate in the US Congress over a major new bill on aid to Ukraine has raised serious doubts about the future military support of the West. In conditions where stocks are running out, Ukraine is already forced to ration ammunition on the front line and for the defense of its cities. This emboldens Russia and may have led to the current surge in airstrikes.

If Ukraine’s air defenses continue to erode, there can be no serious doubt that Russia will attempt to completely destroy the country’s civilian energy infrastructure. This will leave tens of millions of Ukrainians without access to basic amenities such as electricity, heating, water supply and the Internet. Prerequisites will be created for a large-scale humanitarian crisis, which will have serious consequences both for the war itself and for the whole of Central Europe, since an unprecedented wave of migrants from Ukraine will probably go to the EU.

The International Criminal Court in The Hague has already issued arrest warrants for two Russian military commanders in connection with Russia’s previous attacks on Ukraine’s civilian energy infrastructure. While Russia alone bears responsibility for these war crimes, the West’s continued failure to provide Ukraine with adequate air defenses makes it complicit in the unfolding humanitarian crisis.