
There is no direct threat of an offensive from Belarus, but the Russians may intensify attacks on border areas. Despite regular reports of military activity on the territory of Belarus, there is currently no reason to talk about preparing a large-scale offensive on Ukraine from the northern direction. This opinion was expressed by military expert Ivan Tymochko.
According to the expert, the situation in Ukraine remains difficult due to the war, but it is under the control of the Ukrainian Defense Forces. Tymochko suggested that the Russian army will continue to try to increase pressure on the most tense sections of the front, located near the state border with Russia. At the same time, he sees no signs of preparing a major offensive operation from the territory of Belarus.
According to his assessment, risks remain for the border areas of the Chernihiv region, but they are primarily associated with the activities of sabotage and reconnaissance groups, artillery strikes and other local threats. “There are threats in Belarus for the Chernihiv region, but we cannot say now that these will be some kind of combined-arms operations. It could be sabotage and reconnaissance groups, artillery shelling, and so on,” the military expert concluded.