“This is a signal addressed to Lukashenko.”
Recently, the office of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy asked the Prosecutor General of Ukraine to open a criminal case against Belarusian dictator Lukashenko.
In an interview with Charter97.org, Ukrainian political scientist and head of the Penta Center for Applied Political Research Volodymyr Fesenko expressed the opinion that Kyiv is warning the dictator:
“I would like to point out that, from a purely political perspective, in my view, at this point, the purpose of this appeal to the Prosecutor General’s Office is to warn Lukashenko.
If Belarus is drawn into a war against Ukraine, not indirectly, but directly, as part of the escalation of the war that Putin is currently planning, then Ukraine will regard Lukashenko as a war criminal. In other words, it’s a warning, like a yellow card in football. Lukashenko currently hopes that, as part of ending the war between Russia and Ukraine, sanctions against Russia, and also against Belarus, will be lifted, at least partially.” This is what these closed negotiations with the Americans are about. Lukashenko wants something similar to happen in Europe. And if there’s an ICC verdict or a trial, what kind of mitigation or waiver of sanctions will there be? It’s more like the opposite.
This is a signal to Lukashenko not to get drawn into a war against Ukraine. And in the long term, depending on the circumstances, I think the most likely scenario is an indictment against Lukashenko and the corresponding trial at the International Criminal Tribunal.