What benefit does Putin want to get from Israel’s war with Hamas
So Russia has ties to Hamas and has become a close ally of Iran. According to the US version, Moscow and Tehran now have a full-fledged defense partnership. But this does not mean that Moscow was directly involved in the Hamas attack on Israel or had prior knowledge of it. Read more about this in the BBC article.
“We don’t believe that Russia was involved in this,” Israel’s ambassador to Moscow, Alexander Ben Zvi, told the Kommersant newspaper this week, adding that it was “absolute nonsense” to suggest that Russia was involved in the atrocities committed by Hamas in Israel.
“I haven’t seen any evidence of direct supplies of Russian arms to Hamas or that the Russian military is training militants,” said Hannah Notte, a Berlin-based Russia and Middle East expert at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. She reminds that Russia has a long-standing relationship with Hamas. Russia has never declared Hamas a terrorist organization. Hamas delegations were in Moscow last year and this year.
“But I would not draw a conclusion about broad military support from this. Although we know that Russian-made systems made their way into the Gaza Strip, probably through the Sinai [in Egypt] and with the support of Iran,” Hanna Notte notes.
In other words, President Putin did not press the button labeled “Middle East War.” But is he ready to take advantage of it? Absolutely. And here’s how.
Distraction from Ukraine
With a surge of violence in the Middle East dominating the international agenda, Moscow is counting on dramatic headlines from Israel to distract from Russia’s war in Ukraine. But it’s more than just a change in the news cycle. The Russian authorities also hope that as a result of the situation in the Middle East, part of the supplies of Western weapons to Ukraine will be redirected to Israel.
“I believe that this crisis will directly affect the course of the special military operation [in Ukraine],” Russian diplomat Konstantin Gavrilov told the pro-Kremlin newspaper Izvestia. “Ukraine’s sponsors will be distracted by the conflict in Israel. This does not mean that the West will abandon Ukrainians. But the amount of military aid will decrease … and the course of the operation may turn sharply in [Russia’s] favor.”
Is wishful thinking on the part of Russia? It is quite possible.
“We can and will support Israel, just as we support Ukraine,” US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said at a meeting of NATO defense ministers. But the protracted conflict in the Middle East will test America’s ability to simultaneously support two allies in two separate wars.
Russia as an intermediary?
Russia is trying to strengthen its role in the Middle East, presenting itself as a potential peacemaker. It has performed this role before, participating in past international efforts to end the conflict in the region.
“Russia can and will play a role in resolving [the conflict],” said Dmitry Peskov, a spokesman for President Putin. “We maintain contacts with the parties to the conflict.”
During a visit to Moscow this week, Iraq’s prime minister called on President Putin to “announce an initiative for a real ceasefire” in the region.
Russia as a peacemaker? It’s a hard sell. After all, this is the country that launched a full-scale invasion of its neighbor. Nearly 20 months later, Russia’s war in Ukraine has caused death and destruction on a scale that has shocked the world. Also, just because you “can and will play a role” in achieving peace does not guarantee that those involved in the conflict will accept you as a mediator.
Moscow has long been interested in the Middle East since the Soviet Union adopted a pro-Arab stance as Israel developed close ties with the United States. For many years, state-sponsored anti-Semitism was a characteristic feature of Soviet life.
After the collapse of the Soviet empire, Russia’s relations with Israel improved, in part due to the migration of more than a million Jews to Israel from the former Soviet republics. But recently Vladimir Putin’s Russia has become closer to Israel’s enemies, particularly Iran, which has worsened Russian-Israeli relations.
Condemnation of America
The Kremlin sees this as an opportunity to do what it often does – to blame America. After the Hamas attack on Israel, Vladimir Putin’s main message was that “this is an example of the failure of the United States’ policy in the Middle East.”
This is in line with Moscow’s general pattern of attacks on what it calls “US hegemony.” And calling America the main culprit in the Middle East is the Kremlin’s way of strengthening Russia’s position in the region at the expense of Washington.
But there are also dangers for Russia. “Carefully calibrated instability is what serves Russia best,” Hanna Notte believes. “If this crisis diverts attention from Ukraine — and this is a real risk, given the importance of Israel in the domestic political context of the United States — yes, Russia could be a beneficiary in the short term.”
But Russia would not benefit from a war that involves the wider region, including Iran, which supplies weapons and funds to Hamas, Ms Notte says. “Russia does not want a full-scale war between Israel and Iran. If it comes to this, and it becomes clear that America will come hard on Israel’s side, I think Russia will see no other choice but to side with Iran. I’m not sure that she wants it,” the expert notes.
In her opinion, Putin still values his ties to Israel. “I don’t think that Russian diplomacy wants to move into the space where they have to choose sides. But the more this conflict escalates, the more pressure they can feel,” says Hanna Notte.